A study published in Nature, co-authored by Célia Alves, a researcher at CESAM/DAO, shows that mineral dust concentrations increased across most of Europe between 2012 and 2021. In the south of the continent, these intrusions have become more intense, with potential consequences for air quality and public health. The CESAM researcher contributed data on the elemental composition of the dust. Some of the most significant increases occurred in Italy and the Adriatic and Aegean Sea regions, heightening concerns regarding their effects on air quality and public health.
Mineral dust from desert regions is a major component of atmospheric particulate matter, particularly PM₁₀ (particles with a diameter of less than 10 micrometers). Exposure to high concentrations has been linked to the worsening of asthma and increased mortality. Until now, it remained to be determined whether the increase observed in some regions extended across the entire European continent and what the main driving factors were.
The international team gathered approximately 18,500 daily measurements of aluminum, titanium, silicon, calcium, and iron, obtained from 103 rural and urban locations. This data allowed for the development of a machine learning model to estimate daily dust concentrations in Europe between 2012 and 2021. Célia Alves contributed observational data on the elemental composition of the dust to the study.
The results show an increase in concentrations across most of Europe. In the south of the continent, an average of about 46 dust intrusion days per year were estimated. In 2021, the transported dust alone accounted for 31% of the World Health Organization’s annual guideline value for PM₁₀. During these events, dust levels were associated with an approximately 0.67% increase in daily mortality.
Although dust intrusions have not become more frequent, they have increased in intensity in some regions of Southern Europe. Analysis of ice cores from the Alps also revealed an increase of about 110% in dust deposition between the pre-industrial period and the last decade analyzed. The study links the recent worsening to changes in atmospheric circulation, and the long-term trend to increasing aridity and desertification in North Africa.
The authors note, however, that measurement coverage is more limited in Northeastern Europe, the Balkans, and Scandinavia, justifying the need for strengthened long-term monitoring in these regions.
The findings highlight how climate change, by favoring soil degradation and modifying atmospheric circulation patterns, may increase the pressure of mineral dust on public health and hinder the achievement of air quality goals.
Scientific Article: Vasilakos, P. N. et al. (2026). “Rising dust pollution across Europe in a changing climate”. Nature, 655, 647–654. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10743-w